Russia-Ukraine, and where we’re Headed
The world is possibly quite a tinderbox right now, and the Russian-Ukraine conflict might just be the match waiting to be struck.
The escalation has been errant but definite, the geopolitics multipolar but steadfast. Many might trace the current state of events back to 2014, with the Euromaidan revolution and the ousting of President Yanukovych in Ukraine. The “coup” – like Russia called it – had at least one of the major factors causing it to be the trade deals Yanukovych refused to sign with the EU after several months of working toward it. The Russian Federation’s constant meddling – as most of the West will have you believe – in the socio-political affairs of Ukraine, had both supporters and detractors: much of the national population stood for the territorial sovereignty of the Ukraine region as it had formed after the split of the USSR, but there was a significant number of pro-Russia separatists. Yanukovych was pro-Russia and had himself removed from the presidency; his leaning toward a Russian trade deal instead of the EU offer alienated him, but drove the separatism sentiment even higher. Crimea was occupied and annexed by Russia, and Donetsk and Luhansk were occupied and declared independent states. An uneasy, steadily-accumulating military standoff issued for several years to come, with Russia building up a large military presence near northern Ukraine. In February 2022, President Putin launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, and it still unfolds today, with interesting geopolitical mechanics rippling across major world powers.
Take the US, for example. The poster child for the Western world and an unparalleled economic giant, the US has been consistent in denouncing the Russian aggression and taking the initiative at the UN to push for an economic war with the Federation. Of course, much of the same can be said for much of the West; in general denouncing Russia’s actions and calling for peace, affecting economic sanctions in a bid to force Putin’s hand, and supplying humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The EU and the USA have done it all and much more, never really toeing the idea of an out-and-out military offensive to stop Putin with his irredentist views in Ukraine but nonetheless backing Ukraine in other ways.
Putin’s claims on Ukraine, if fulfilled by sheer force, might well lead to half of Eastern Europe being annihilated too. The push for reclaiming USSR ground is being termed by Russia as a ‘special military operation’, and if their forces eye other territories, then the foundation is already laid for World War III. There will be no morals sweated over pulling the trigger on global war, either, for Russia is intent on ‘saving’ the nationals of these countries from themselves. In fact, the Russian prerogative calls Ukraine to be proponents of neo-Nazism, and pro-Russian separatists and Russian militants all likely believe that the special military operation is necessary and possibly even humane. Never mind the human rights violations or the use of civilian rape as a weapon of fear. The ends justify the means, to sum up Russia’s narrative. That is what is a major cause of worry to the West.
Manufacturing giant and rising power China has had good relations with Russia, which seem to be getting better. In fact, in the event of a world war, which still remains unlikely but not impossible, it will not be surprising to find the Asian giants in Russia’s corner. US sanctions on Chinese products and worsening relations between the PRC and US allies push China and Russia even closer.
While the EU has a more immediate interest in containing Russia, neither they nor the US has been able to do so. Economic sanctions have slowed down the Russian war machine but it still keeps rolling with impunity. One of the biggest reasons has been India, another growing global power with a huge domestic market, with military might of some significance. The sanctions imposed by the West do not extend to India also requiring to impose them, and the South Asian giants, ever the fence-hoggers, have used the loophole to the fullest. A great example is crude oil: cheap Russian crude has been imported in huge volumes by India and supplied to the West. This did two things. It kept the world crude prices from skyrocketing due to the sanctions on Russia, and eased the weight of the sanctions themselves on Russia. And, of course, India makes its money off the whole middle-man business, keeps healthy relations with the West, hearty relations with Russia, and even good diplomacy with Ukraine: India has often asserted its willingness to fully cooperate in or even facilitate any deal to broker peace between the two countries, and has provided aid to those needing it, while at the same time staying out of the military and economic quagmire of it all.
Of course, the USA cannot take a stand as ambivalent as that of its good friend India. Neither can the EU, or even the NATO. Ukraine is not a EU member but much of erstwhile USSR is, and the euro might not hold up well enough to war with Russia. Keen observers to the whole scene unfolding in central Europe all abhor violence and bloodshed, but are reluctant to jump the gun on Russia. In light of the major developments, there might be only three ways a country can go with regard to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. One, they can choose the fire-and-brimstone route as the West seems inclined to lean toward, one which might even end in nuclear war in the face of Putin’s will. Two, they can choose to go the PRC’s way and back Russian aggression tacitly, or even more actively, clearly dividing the world into two camps, much like it was before the two world wars. Three, they can go the non-aligned way as India has, neither earning nor losing friends but help temper the world economy and the situation at large. Of course, there is a fourth way countries can go, which is to simply go about their business as though none of this affects them – which is a flawed argument to begin and end with – and sadly enough, most of the world seems to have picked this noncommittal route, one that doesn’t better affairs but doesn’t worsen them either, at least not in the short run.
It makes for interesting politics, surely, but time is definitely of the essence in a scenario where there have been accounts of sadistic soldiers executing civilians for fun, or raping men, women and children with wanton abandon. Questions have been raised over the inefficacy of the UNSC, or even the UN Charter or other international laws and conventions. The underlying economics form a strong motive for war on either side, and with the multipolarity of the current global order there can simply be no clear victors – economic, military, or moral – from any such all-out military offensive.
The world is coming apart at the seams, and it might just be a little too late for the proverbial stitch in time.
-Arka Das